BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 141 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I think that it’s a good week to focus more on cash games. The main GPP is the $8 entrance that pays $10K into 1st place. That is the best one to pursue in my view. I will have a few LUs that I placed into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I won’t have lots of LUs in total this week. Aside from that, most of my play this week will probably be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a few plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, in addition to my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong could be the best play on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favored on Saturday and I believe that is a fight the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home nation. I believe in tournaments, Yadong is going to be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 women fighters priced above him, with much smaller chances of winning ITD. I believe that you can make a case to fade him due to his possession in GPPs, but in cash games we do not care about possession. I think that this is a good spot to lock at a triumph and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins which we can afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This fight has got the 2nd highest FDGTD lineup on the card in -400. There’s also value on Hu Yaozong with him $600 cheaper and the betting line being nearly even. Usually when there is worth like that within an underdog it makes them among the more popular fighters on the card. I don’t think either of those men are UFC level fighters, but I’m a bit more impressed with what I’ve seen from Coulter than the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter in GPP lineups at a lower ownership than Yaozong makes sense this weekend in a struggle which shouldn’t move all 3-rounds. If both of these men get an early finish they will probably be on the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter will be the lower owned guy of both and that’s what makes him my GPP drama of the week.
Underdog play of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I love to target this week for UFC Beijing. I haven’t loved creating lineups this week because I hate plugging in 2 underdogs once I think almost every favorite will get a win. I believe that the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou because he does have a clear path to victory and he has won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the ability in order to KO anyone on Earth. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends upon the 1st place lineup, especially if it’s an early KO. In the first battle between both of these guys Blaydes managed to receive 2 takedowns, but Ngannou was able to get up pretty fast each time. If he’s able to get up like that here, then I don’t find any way Blaydes are going to have the cardio to attempt to wrestle for 5-rounds. I think Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I really don’t see Blaydes wanting to attack for long periods of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a cardI don’t like many underdogs I think he is the best one to aim with his 1st round KO upsidedown. Fade of the week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t enjoy targeting any of these ladies in the $9k range. I think they need to all get wins, but I do not see any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d want at least 92 DK things to strike 10x and I believe she has to get a conclusion to make that occur. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA album and just 1 of the wins did not go to conclusion. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a tournament. I also think Zhang and Xiaonan have better chances of winning than Mueller does so that’s why I picked her over those two as my fade of the week. I will not be making a lot of lineups this week however if I had been making 20 lineups then Mueller would be on zero of these.
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